Resilience Index of Infrastructure under Natural Hazards and Its Calculation Method

LU Meng; MA Xiangyu; ZHANG Jie; ZHU Hehua

doi:10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.20250908001

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Resilience Index of Infrastructure under Natural Hazards and Its Calculation Method

更新时间：2026-05-07

- Resilience Index of Infrastructure under Natural Hazards and Its Calculation Method
- Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering Pages: 1-9(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  同济大学土木工程学院，上海 200092
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.20250908001
  CLC： X43
- Online First：06 May 2026，
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
LU Meng, MA Xiangyu, ZHANG Jie, et al. Resilience Index of Infrastructure under Natural Hazards and Its Calculation Method[J/OL]. Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering, 2026, 1-9.
DOI：

LU Meng, MA Xiangyu, ZHANG Jie, et al. Resilience Index of Infrastructure under Natural Hazards and Its Calculation Method[J/OL]. Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering, 2026, 1-9. DOI： 10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.20250908001.

摘要

由于自然灾害下基础设施安全性普遍较高，现有韧性指标难以有效区分不同基础设施安全水平。针对上述不足，首先通过表征自然灾害强度与基础设施参数不确定性，求解给定时间段内多场自然灾害造成的基础设施功能损失期望值，基于概率积分变换，定义了能够有效区分不同基础设施安全水平的韧性指标。之后分别求解不确定性条件下基础设施受损概率、受损基础设施功能损失期望值以及受损基础设施恢复时间期望值，构建了自然灾害下基础设施韧性高效计算方法。最后应用提出的韧性指标与计算方法，研究了降雨条件下公路边坡韧性。结果表明，公路边坡韧性指标与受损概率、功能损失期望值、恢复时间期望值均呈负相关关系，其中受损概率对公路边坡韧性的影响程度最高。

Abstract

Given the generally high level of infrastructure safety during natural hazards

existing resilience indexes struggle to effectively differentiate the varying safety levels of different infrastructures. To address the limitation

the uncertainties in natural hazard intensity and infrastructure parameters are first characterized to calculate the expected value of infrastructure functional losses caused by multiple natural hazards over a given time period. Based on the probability integral transform

a resilience index is defined that can effectively distinguish the safety levels of different infrastructures. Subsequently

the damage probability of infrastructure under uncertainty

the expected value of functional losses for damaged infrastructure

and the expected value of recovery time for damaged infrastructure are calculated respectively

thereby constructing an efficient calculation method for infrastructure resilience under natural hazards. Finally

the proposed resilience index and calculation method are applied to study the resilience of highway slopes under rainfall. The results indicate that the resilience index of highway slopes exhibits a negative correlation with the damage probability

expected value of functional loss

and expected value of recovery time. Among these factors

the damage probability has the most significant impact on the resilience of highway slopes.

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