Comparison and Application of Threshold Methods for Extreme Wind Speed Estimation in Coastal Mixed Wind Climates

ZHU Chao; ZHAO Lin; FANG Genshen; DAI Xihua; XIAN Rong

doi:10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.20240320001

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Comparison and Application of Threshold Methods for Extreme Wind Speed Estimation in Coastal Mixed Wind Climates

更新时间：2025-08-27

- Comparison and Application of Threshold Methods for Extreme Wind Speed Estimation in Coastal Mixed Wind Climates
- Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering Vol. 45, Issue 4, Pages: 726-735(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.广东省公路建设有限公司，广东广州 510199
  2.同济大学土木工程防灾减灾全国重点实验室，上海 200092
  3.同济大学桥梁结构抗风技术交通行业重点实验室，上海 200092
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.20240320001
  CLC： U442.5
- Received：20 March 2024，
  
  Revised：2024-05-06，
  
  Published：28 August 2025
- 稿件说明：
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朱超,赵林,方根深等.阈值法在沿海混合风气候极值风速预测中的对比与应用[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2025,45(04):726-735.

ZHU Chao,ZHAO Lin,FANG Genshen,et al.Comparison and Application of Threshold Methods for Extreme Wind Speed Estimation in Coastal Mixed Wind Climates[J].Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering,2025,45(04):726-735.
朱超,赵林,方根深等.阈值法在沿海混合风气候极值风速预测中的对比与应用[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2025,45(04):726-735. DOI： 10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.20240320001.

ZHU Chao,ZHAO Lin,FANG Genshen,et al.Comparison and Application of Threshold Methods for Extreme Wind Speed Estimation in Coastal Mixed Wind Climates[J].Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering,2025,45(04):726-735. DOI： 10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.20240320001.

摘要

台风等极端强风条件下，风速实测数据不足且分布不均匀，传统用于估算重现期极值风速的基于极值分布概率函数的阶段极值法难以应用。系统回顾了在小样本极值风速预测中常用的两种阈值法‑越界峰值法（POT）和独立风暴法（MIS），结合Monte‑Carlo随机模拟理论，随机生成了服从六种常用风速概率分布的母体伪风速样本，事先可以获得预期的特定重现期风速极值，由此对比了POT和MIS法对阈值选取的敏感性以及在重现期极值风速预测中的差异。通过整理崇明岛气象站提供的1971年至2007年的日最大和台风条件逐时间隔的10 min风速数据，分别对混合气候（不区分良态风和台风数据类型）、良态气候和台风气候三种气候条件的风速分布概型进行比较，并采用阶段极值法和两种阈值法预测了不同气候条件下的重现期极值风速，在比较不同方法预测结果差异基础上，阐明了不同方法的准确性和实用性，为台风气候条件下基于实测数据的重现期极值风速预测提供参考。

Abstract

Under extreme wind conditions such as typhoons

the observed wind speed data are often insufficient and unevenly distributed

making it difficult to apply the traditional stage-wise extreme value method based on extreme value distribution probability functions to estimate extreme wind speed with a return period. This study systematically reviewed two commonly used threshold methods for estimating extreme wind speeds with small samples—peak over threshold (POT) and method of independent storm (MIS). Combining the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation theory

pseudo wind speed samples following six common wind speed probability distributions were randomly generated

enabling prior acquisition of theoretical extreme wind speeds with specific return periods. Based on this

the sensitivity of the POT and MIS methods to threshold selection and their differences in estimating extreme wind speeds with return periods were compared. The wind speed probability distributions under three climates —mixed climate (without differentiation between normal wind and typhoon data)

normal climate

and typhoon climate—were compared using the daily maximum wind speeds and hourly wind speeds with a 10-minute interval under typhoon conditions from 1971 to 2007 at the Chongming meteorological station

China. Additionally

extreme wind speeds with different return periods were estimated under different climates using the stage-wise extreme value method and two threshold methods. Based on the comparison of estimation differences among these methods

the accuracy and applicability of different methods were clarified. This study provides a reference for estimating extreme wind speeds with return periods based on observed data under typhoon climate.

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