Reliability Simulation Analysis of Rock Slope in Terms of NORTA Correlation Random Number

周生通; 孙元元

doi:10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2018.01.008

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Reliability Simulation Analysis of Rock Slope in Terms of NORTA Correlation Random Number

更新时间：2025-12-11

- Reliability Simulation Analysis of Rock Slope in Terms of NORTA Correlation Random Number
- Vol. 38, Issue 1, Pages: 56-64(2018)
- 作者机构：
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- DOI：10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2018.01.008
  CLC： U457
- Published：2018
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[1]周生通,孙元元.基于NORTA相关随机数的岩质边坡可靠性仿真评估[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2018,38(01):56-64.

周生通, 孙元元. Reliability Simulation Analysis of Rock Slope in Terms of NORTA Correlation Random Number[J]. 2018, 38(1): 56-64.
[1]周生通,孙元元.基于NORTA相关随机数的岩质边坡可靠性仿真评估[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2018,38(01):56-64. DOI： 10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2018.01.008.

周生通, 孙元元. Reliability Simulation Analysis of Rock Slope in Terms of NORTA Correlation Random Number[J]. 2018, 38(1): 56-64. DOI： 10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2018.01.008.

摘要

随机因素的合理表征是边坡可靠性评估的关键。NORTA方法是一种利用多维正态随机向量变换实现具有任意分布类型和可行相关矩阵的多维随机数生成的快速算法。以秀茂坪岩质边坡稳定可靠性为例

采用NORTA方法生成具有指定概率信息（边缘分布和相关系数）的相关随机数

利用MC仿真估计典型工况下的岩坡失稳概率

并在这一过程中探讨NORTA-MCS方法的限制、仿真结果的随机性以及通过控制变异系数估算仿真样本个数的途径。结果表明:相比自然状态下的秀茂坪岩坡

忽略相关性的岩坡失稳概率增加显著;而且随着粘聚力和内摩擦角间以及张力裂缝深度和充水程度间相关系数代数值的增大

秀茂坪岩坡的失稳概率也逐渐增大。

Abstract

A reasonable representation of stochastic uncertainties is a key part in the reliability assessment of rock slope.Normal To Anything（NORTA）is a rapid generation algorithm of multi-dimensional random vector with any marginal and feasible correlation matrix.Taking the reliability of the Sau Mau Ping rock slope stability as an example

NORTA was applied to generate correlated random numbers with specified marginal and correlation coefficients.Then

the instability probability of the Sau Mau Ping rock slope was estimated for typical cases using the Monte Carlo Simulation（MCS）procedure.The limitations of the approach

the randomness of the simulation results and the estimation approach for sample size based on the control of variation coefficient were also discussed.Results showed a remarkable difference of the instability probability between the natural case considering the dependency and the case ignoring the dependency for the Sau Mau Ping rock slope.In addition

with the increase of the algebraic value of correlation coefficients between cohesion and frication angle or/and between tension crack depth and degree of filling water

the instability probability of the Sau Mau Ping rock slope increased gradually as well.

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references

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