A Study on Risk Assessment and Risk Regionalization of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Northwestern Regions of Liaoning Province

张继权; 严登华; 王春乙; 刘兴朋; 佟志军

doi:10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2012.03.007

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A Study on Risk Assessment and Risk Regionalization of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Northwestern Regions of Liaoning Province

更新时间：2025-12-11

- A Study on Risk Assessment and Risk Regionalization of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Northwestern Regions of Liaoning Province
- Vol. 32, Issue 3, Pages: 300-306(2012)
- 作者机构：
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2012.03.007
  CLC： 423
- Published：2012
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[1]张继权,严登华,王春乙,刘兴朋,佟志军.辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险评价与风险区划研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2012,32(03):300-306.

张继权, 严登华, 王春乙, et al. A Study on Risk Assessment and Risk Regionalization of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Northwestern Regions of Liaoning Province[J]. 2012, 32(3): 300-306.
[1]张继权,严登华,王春乙,刘兴朋,佟志军.辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险评价与风险区划研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2012,32(03):300-306. DOI： 10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2012.03.007.

张继权, 严登华, 王春乙, et al. A Study on Risk Assessment and Risk Regionalization of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Northwestern Regions of Liaoning Province[J]. 2012, 32(3): 300-306. DOI： 10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2012.03.007.

摘要

以辽西北29个农业县（市、区）为研究区域

选取辽西北最主要的玉米作物作为研究对象

从造成农业干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、脆弱性和抗旱减灾能力4个方面着手

利用自然灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法和层次分析法

建立了农业干旱灾害风险指数（ADRI）

用以表征农业干旱灾害风险程度;借助GIS技术

绘制辽西北农业干旱灾害风险评价区划图

将风险评价区划图与2006年辽西北受干旱影响粮食减产系数区划图对比

发现两者可以较好的匹配。研究结果可为当地农业干旱灾害预警、保险

以及有关部门的旱灾管理、减灾决策制定提供理论依据和指导。

Abstract

The regions researched in this paper include 29 counties in the northwest regions of Liaoning Province

and the drought disaster index system and static model of agricultural drought disaster risk assessment are established

which integrate hazard

exposure

vulnerability and emergency response and recovery capability. The agricultural drought disaster is set on the theoretical support of Natural Disaster Risk Index method

Weighted Comprehensive Analysis（WCA） and the analytic hierarchy process（AHP）.The agricultural drought disaster risk index（ADRI） is assessed by the risk assessment model.The risk map of agricultural drought disaster is drawn based on GIS

the study is divided into four types: heavy

middle

low and light.This study can be expected to provide reference and guidance for agricultural drought disaster insurance

agricultural drought disaster management and developing strategies to mitigate agricultural drought hazard and reduce the losses from it.

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references

干旱对辽宁省玉米产量影响及风险区划 [J]. 张琪,张继权,佟志军,刘兴朋. 灾害学 . 2010(02)

近50年辽宁省干旱综合指数的动态变化 [J]. 刘晓梅,李晶,吕志红,刘明,邢婉茹. 生态学杂志 . 2009(05)

综合自然灾害风险管理——全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择 [J]. 张继权,冈田宪夫,多多纳裕一. 自然灾害学报 . 2006(01)

层次分析法在确定评价指标权重系数中的应用 [J]. 王以彭,李结松,刘立元. 第一军医大学学报 . 1999(04)

主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M]. 北京师范大学出版社 , 张继权, 2007

辽宁省水资源[M]. 辽宁科学技术出版社 , 辽宁省水利厅编, 2006

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