Considering the randomness of seismic response and resistance of the pipe

probabilistic forecasting model was built to evaluate the pipe’s earthquake disaster.Simplifying the water supply network system as an edge-weighted directed network figure

according to the seismic reliability analysis

each pipeline’s damage state was simulated by Monte Carlo random process.Connectivity reliability of the network was measured by graph theory and fuzzy relation matrix method separately.Since precision probability analysis was substituted by the approximate frequency of the connectivity between nodes of the network and water source in Monte Carlo method

5000 simulations were performed to obtain steady numerical solution.Results indicate that there is almost no difference between graph theory method and fuzzy relation matrix method in the network’s connectivity reliability analysis.