Analysis of Disaster Vulnerability of Small Cities and Towns Based on Bayesian Stochastic Assessment Method

王威; 田杰; 苏经宇; 马东辉

doi:10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2010.05.007

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Analysis of Disaster Vulnerability of Small Cities and Towns Based on Bayesian Stochastic Assessment Method

更新时间：2025-12-11

- Analysis of Disaster Vulnerability of Small Cities and Towns Based on Bayesian Stochastic Assessment Method
- Vol. 30, Issue 5, Pages: 524-527(2010)
- 作者机构：
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- DOI：10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2010.05.007
  CLC： 43
- Published：2010
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[1]王威,田杰,苏经宇,马东辉.基于贝叶斯随机评价方法的小城镇灾害易损性分析[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2010,30(05):524-527.

王威, 田杰, 苏经宇, et al. Analysis of Disaster Vulnerability of Small Cities and Towns Based on Bayesian Stochastic Assessment Method[J]. 2010, 30(5): 524-527.
[1]王威,田杰,苏经宇,马东辉.基于贝叶斯随机评价方法的小城镇灾害易损性分析[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2010,30(05):524-527. DOI： 10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2010.05.007.

王威, 田杰, 苏经宇, et al. Analysis of Disaster Vulnerability of Small Cities and Towns Based on Bayesian Stochastic Assessment Method[J]. 2010, 30(5): 524-527. DOI： 10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2010.05.007.

摘要

为了准确评价小城镇灾害易损性所处的状态

进而为制定小城镇防灾减灾规划提供科学依据

提出了基于贝叶斯公式的小城镇灾害易损性随机评价方法。该方法通过计算小城镇灾害易损性单个指标属于某个评价级别的概率

由最大似然分类原则确定单个易损性指标的评价级别

进而采用最大加权概率原则推求其综合评价级别。通过实例计算分析

并与模糊评估方法、可拓物元评价方法进行比较验证

说明了该方法的可行性及其简单、实用的特点。

Abstract

In order to evaluate the vulnerability states of small cities and towns correctly and then to establish scientific basis for disaster prevention and reduction

a stochastic assessment method for the vulnerability of small cities and towns by using Bayesian formula was proposed.In this method

according to the maximum likelihood ordering principle

the assessment order of each index of actual small cities and towns was firstly derived through calculating the probability of each of those vulnerability indices belonging to the assessment order used in the vulnerability assessment criteria of small cities and towns.Secondly

the integrated vulnerability assessment order of small cities and towns was derived by using the maximum weighted probability principle.Tested by examples together with the other two methods

i.e.the fuzzy assessment method and extension matter-element method

the results verify effectively that this method is useful and feasible.

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references

基于云模型的城市防震减灾能力综合评估方法 [J]. 王威,田杰,马东辉,苏经宇,韩阳. 北京工业大学学报 . 2010(06)

基于贝叶斯方法的湖泊富营养化评价 [J]. 邬敏,刘智勇,李祚泳. 成都信息工程学院学报 . 2008(05)

小城镇灾害易损性可拓评估的原理和应用 [J]. 安永林,彭立敏,张运良,王薇. 安全与环境学报 . 2007(06)

基于贝叶斯公式的湖泊富营养化随机评价方法及其验证 [J]. 谢平,李德,陈广才,叶爱中. 长江流域资源与环境 . 2005(02)

小城镇灾害易损性分析与评估 [J]. 王薇,徐志胜,冯凯. 中国安全科学学报 . 2004(07)

基于AHP的城市抗震防御能力二级模糊综合评判[J]. 王威,韩阳,赵月平. 建筑技术开发. 2006 (04)

概率论[M]. 科学出版社 , 苏淳编著, 2004

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