According to seismic data recorded in the last 38 years and by using combination of seismic activity parameters

b value spatial distribution

fault division combined with historical background and tectonic earthquake analysis method

the modern seismic activity characteristics of the Tancheng-Lujiang fault is analyzed

the sections are determined having the potential of strong and moderate earthquakes. The analysis results show that there are six sections along the middle and southern part of the fault with different modern seismic activity characteristics. At the Tancheng-Sihong section

the fault plane is at relatively locked state with high stress background and thus there is highest risk of strong earthquakes. At the Jiujiang section where a M5.7 earthquake occurred in 2005

the energy accumulated formany years has been released years and the stresses on the fault plane are at the phase of adjustment with low b-values and high stresses since the locked state has been unlocked. Therefore

there exists no possibility of recurrence of moderate to strong earthquakes in near future years at this section. At the Weifang-Juxian

the Dingyuan

the Hefei-Lujiang and the Susong sections

the fault planes are at a relatively low stress level

small earthquakes have occurred frequently or sparsely

and there is a small probability of moderate to strong earthquakes in the not long future.