黄世成, 周嘉陵, 程婷, et al. Research and Application of Disaster Evaluation Methods of Typhoons and Gales——A Case of Sutong Bridge[J]. 2009, 29(3): 329-335.DOI:
Research and Application of Disaster Evaluation Methods of Typhoons and Gales——A Case of Sutong Bridge
According to the special demand of avoiding the disaster risks of typhoons and gales during construction and operation of important projects
the evaluation methods of disaster risks of typhoons and gales under the local environment of a project area were studied for a case of the Sutong Bridge.Based on the principle of climate statistics
the temporal and spatial distributions of influence typhoons from 1949 to 2007 were studied
and the disaster loss index(DLI) of typhoons and gales with speeds at or above 17.2 m/s(level 8) in the bridge area were calculated with the Monte Carlo method.The results indicate the following:(1) The annual average number of typhoons affecting the bridge area is about 2.5
of which more than 0.78 ones could cause gales with speeds faster than 17.2 m/s (level 8)
the proper time when the project area may suffer the attack of typhoons is the period from late May to late November
the time from early July to mid-September is the frequent period of typhoons
in which August has the maximal probability of typhoons
and the dominant directions of typhoons and gales are the partial south-east or the partial north.(2) The Monte Carlo′s simulation shows the mathematical expectation of DLI of typhoons and gales in the bridge area is about 0.2821
48% of that in the provincial area
and its potential economic losses will be more than 20.675 million Yuan.The application of the evaluation methods for the Sutong Bridge has shown that the principle of climate statistics and the Monte Carlo method could meet the need of meteorological risk analysis for any local environment
and their results could be taken as a theoretical basis for the construction management and the avoidance of disaster risks.