Occupant evacuation in fire is a complex process

which is affected by many factors.The effects between the factors are always neglected during the traditional analysis of reliable probability of safety evacuation.In order to obtain more accurate results

with the help of buildingEXODUS and FDS

the crowd evacuation aim at a subway station is simulated and analyzed.And the required safety evacuation time（RSET） and available safety evacuation time（ASET） are calculated respectively.Based on the above research

the limit state equation of evacuees′ safety evacuation is built.After that

the reliable probability of safety evacuation is obtained by first-order second-moment method.Because the effects between each influential parameters of evacuees′ evacuation are reflected better

the proposed approach is of high accuracy.