The formation of intensity attenuation law is essential for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA) at a specific site to predict engineering strong ground motion for a given exceeding probabilistic level by earthquake pair mapping method
thus the rational evaluation of statistical factors determining the intensity distribution law is essentially critical to the final PSHA results
and it has economical application.This paper
focusing on the historical earthquake isoseismals in a typical seismic moderate area of Southern Central China(SCC)
gives firstly an introduction of Joyner-Boore(J-B) method of LSE in intensity data fitting
then adopts different attenuation relationships of intensity in SCC over epicentral distances and magnitude of surface wave
including that of equivalent circle vs.radius
that of ellipse
and that of joint ellipse vs.long-axis or short axis.Nonlinear parameter estimation and standard deviation of above models are also tabulated by Joyner-Boore(J-B) method of LSE and ordinary least square estimation(OLSE) in intensity data fitting.Finally
comparisons of these results derived from this paper with those in previous studies in the same area and with that typical in West America are performed.Results show:(1) Different models of intensity attenuation law and intensity data applied are both crucial for statistical analysis of historical isoseismals to predict the mean earthquake intensity at a specific site
and the mean intensity predictions by various models applied in this study is fairly consistent;(2) Intensity predicted at a short distance by Joyner-Boore(J-B) method of LSE is much higher than by OLSE in SCC intensity data fitting
but the difference will dilute even reverse at a longer epicentral distance;(3) Intensity attenuation law by epicentral distances and magnitude of surface wave of joint ellipse vs.long-axis or short axis is better optimized than that of ellipse
since the former gives a congruent value at long or short-axis
while the other loses the virtue;(4) Compared with this study
traditional researches overestimated the mean intensity
but the difference will dilute with growing distance;(5) Comparisons of this study shows that the intensity prediction decayed fastest in West America
and the next is that in East China.Also
the application of this study is also confined by the distance and magnitude of the earthquake data.This study may provide a fair consideration for micro-zonation and design earthquake ground motion in seismic moderate area.