Self-affine Fractal Characteristics of Seismicity over Jiangsu and Adjacent Areas and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction

李强; 徐桂明

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Self-affine Fractal Characteristics of Seismicity over Jiangsu and Adjacent Areas and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction

更新时间：2025-12-11

- Self-affine Fractal Characteristics of Seismicity over Jiangsu and Adjacent Areas and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction
- Issue 3, Pages: 296-299(2006)
- 作者机构：
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  CLC： 315.75
- Published：2006
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[1]李强,徐桂明.江苏及邻区地震活动自仿射分形特征及预报应用[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2006(03):296-299.

李强, 徐桂明. Self-affine Fractal Characteristics of Seismicity over Jiangsu and Adjacent Areas and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction[J]. 2006, (3): 296-299.
[1]李强,徐桂明.江苏及邻区地震活动自仿射分形特征及预报应用[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2006(03):296-299. DOI：

李强, 徐桂明. Self-affine Fractal Characteristics of Seismicity over Jiangsu and Adjacent Areas and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction[J]. 2006, (3): 296-299. DOI：

摘要

对江苏及邻区地震频次自仿射分形H值的变化特点作了研究

并对1970年以来发生在该地区的5级以上地震作了回溯性预测检验。研究结果显示

江苏及邻区地震频次的H值在0.590.99之间

地震活动具有确定和随机的双重属性

同时表明地震活动具有正继承性;对江苏及邻区的震例及其预报效能评价的研究表明

地震频次H值下降的异常现象与江苏及邻区5级以上地震具有较好的对应关系

回溯性预测检验得到的R值为0.365。因而地震频次H值在该地区的地震预报中有较好的应用前景

值得用来探求未来中强地震可能发生的危险时段。

Abstract

In this paper

the characteristic of self-affine fractal H-value of earthquake frequency in Jiangsu Province and adjacent areas is studied

and the retrospective prediction test to the earthquakes（M≥5.0） in this region since 1970 is made.It is indicated that the H-value is between 0.59 and 0.99

which illustrates that the earthquake activity has both determinacy and randomicity as well as persistence.It is also indicated that the abnormal variation of lowering H-value is preferably corresponded to the earthquakes（M≥5.0） in the predictive efficiency evaluation of the earthquake examples in this area

and that the R-value derived from retrospective prediction test to the earthquakes（M≥5.0） in this region since 1970 is 0.365

therefore the H-value can be used for predicting earthquake in Jiangsu Province and adjacent area.It is worthy using H-value to explore the dangerous period of time for the possible earthquakes to occur.

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references

地震时间间隔的R／S分析 [J]. 刘长海,刘义高,张军. 地震学报 . 1995(03)

一维地震预报评分问题 [J]. 秦卫平. 地震学报 . 1991(02)

R/S分析和地球化学数据的分形处理 [J]. 孟宪国. 地球科学 . 1991(03)

地震分形[M]. 地震出版社 , 朱令人,陈〓等著, 2000

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