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西南交通建设集团股份有限公司,云南,昆明,651000
Published:2021
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赵江,王梓芃,胡金政,马丽娜,张洁.基于速率倒数法的滑坡时间概率预测∗[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2021,(2):221-228
Zhao Jiang. Probabilistic Forecast of Slope Failure Time Based on Inverse-velocity Method[J]. 2021, (2): 221-228.
在滑坡时间预测中,基于变形监测数据的速率倒数法受到了广泛重视。在该方法的使用过程中,存在模型参数难以同时标定、难以考虑预测时间的不确定性的难题。针对上述不足,提出了一种两阶段速率倒数模型的标定方法。基于该方法可以对模型参数进行同时标定,同时可对滑坡时间进行概率预测。结合 10 个滑坡案例比较了不同模型假设对滑坡时间预测的影响。结果表明,考虑滑坡时间的不确定性后,预测滑坡时间与实际观测滑坡时间更为符合。考虑速率倒数模型的非线性后,拟合最优模型与实测数据的拟合度更好;但从预测效果而言,线性模型预测结果与滑坡实际发生时间符合的程度更高。
The monitoring data-based inverse-velocity method has drawn wide attention in slope failure forecast. There are difficulties in calibrating model parameters simultaneously and considering the uncertainty of slope failure time. To solve such problem,a two-step method for calibrating the parameters of the inverse-velocity method is introduced. Meanwhile,the probabilistic prediction is provided. Based on 10 cases of landslide,the impact of the selection of α value in the inverse-velocity method is discussed. The result shows that:(1)the predicted failure time can well accord with the actual time by considering its uncertainty with probabilistic method;(2)the linearized model can provide a more accurate forecast though the non-linearized model shows higher goodness-of-fit.
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