蒋水华, 李典庆, 曹子君, et al. Multiple Response Surfaces Method for Probabilistic Analysis and Reliability Sensitivity Analysis of Slopes Considering Spatially Varying Soil Properties[J]. 2015, 35(5): 592-598. DOI: 10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2015.05.006.
考虑参数空间变异性的边坡可靠度及其敏感性分析多重响应面法
摘要
提出考虑土体参数空间变异性的边坡可靠度及其敏感性分析多重响应面法
研究了该方法在考虑参数空间变异性边坡可靠度分析中的应用和边坡可靠度对空间变异性的敏感性。结果表明
自相关函数对边坡可靠度有一定的影响。基于指数型自相关函数得到的边坡失效概率明显偏小
由指数余弦型自相关函数得到的失效概率总体偏大
由高斯型、二阶自回归型和三角型自相关函数得到的边坡可靠度十分接近。此外
当土体参数间变异系数较小和波动范围较大时
自相关函数对边坡可靠度的影响更加明显。在失效概率较小的情况下
采用指数型自相关函数会高估边坡可靠度水平。
Abstract
This paper develops a multiple response surface method for probabilistic analysis and reliability sensitivity analysis of slopes considering spatially varying soil properties.The proposed method is applied to probabilistic analysis and reliability sensitivity analysis of slopes to explore the effect of spatial variability on the slope reliability.The results indicate that the proposed method achieves high computational efficiency in reliability sensitivity analysis.It can be used to effectively evaluate the slope reliability considering the spatial variability of soil properties with reasonable accuracy.The autocorrelation functions might have some influences on the slope reliability.The failure probability of slope stability obtained from the single exponential autocorrelation function is relatively small compared with the values of failure probability obtained by using other four autocorrelation functions.On the other hand
using cosine exponential autocorrelation function gives a failure probability that is slightly larger.In addition
the square exponential
second-order autoregressive and binary noise autocorrelation functions almost yield similar slope reliability analysis results.In addition
the differences in the slope reliability using different autocorrelation functions become relatively obvious when the coefficient of variation is relatively small and the scale of fluctuation of soil properties is relatively large.
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