储罐爆炸抛射碎片对目标储罐的破坏概率研究

陈刚; 朱霁平; 武军; 刘乃安; 王国栋

doi:10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2012.02.017

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储罐爆炸抛射碎片对目标储罐的破坏概率研究

结构抗火 | 更新时间：2025-12-11

- 储罐爆炸抛射碎片对目标储罐的破坏概率研究
- Damage Probability Model of Target Storage Tank Impacted by Explosion Fragments
- 防灾减灾工程学报 2012年32卷第2期页码：216-222
- 作者机构：
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目（91024027）;国家科技支撑计划项目（2011BAK07B01）资助
- DOI：10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2012.02.017
  中图分类号： 937
- 纸质出版：2012
- 稿件说明：
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[1]陈刚,朱霁平,武军,刘乃安,王国栋.储罐爆炸抛射碎片对目标储罐的破坏概率研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2012,32(02):216-222.

陈刚, 朱霁平, 武军, et al. Damage Probability Model of Target Storage Tank Impacted by Explosion Fragments[J]. 2012, 32(2): 216-222.
[1]陈刚,朱霁平,武军,刘乃安,王国栋.储罐爆炸抛射碎片对目标储罐的破坏概率研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2012,32(02):216-222. DOI： 10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2012.02.017.

陈刚, 朱霁平, 武军, et al. Damage Probability Model of Target Storage Tank Impacted by Explosion Fragments[J]. 2012, 32(2): 216-222. DOI： 10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.2012.02.017.

摘要

化工储罐爆炸产生的抛射碎片击中并破坏相邻罐体后

将引发多米诺效应。N guyen破坏概率模型认为

当罐壳受撞击后

残余壁厚小于某个临界值时就会被破坏

并假设该临界残余壁厚为定值

存在不合理之处。本文基于储罐壳体损失面积安全评价方法AP I 579

把撞击形成的复杂凹坑简化为圆锥形

分别针对圆柱储罐、球罐推导出圆锥形凹坑剩余强度系数的求解方法

并根据塑性失效理论确定了罐壳的临界剩余强度系数

由此建立了新的破坏准则。在此基础上

采用蒙特卡罗法进行模拟

建立了新的爆炸碎片对目标储罐的破坏概率模型

与N guyen模型相比

得出的破坏概率偏大

结果更为安全保守。通过对剩余强度系数与无量纲撞击深度和凹坑锥角的变化关系进行分析

证明N guyen模型中临界残余壁厚为定值的假设并不合理

而新的基于剩余强度系数计算的破坏概率更为准确合理。

Abstract

The fragments generated from exploded chemical storage tank would cause the domino effect after impacting on other neighboring equipments.In Nguyen′s damage probability model

a constant critical residual thickness of tank shell is assumed and taken as a criterion.However

the value of the thickness is unreasonable and difficult to be determined.Based on the API 579 method for safety assessment of lost area of the vessels shell

a new damage probability model was presented.At first

the complex pits formed by the impact were simplified as conical pits.Then

the calculation equations of residual strength coefficients were derived and critical residual strength coefficient was determined based on the plastic failure theory.Finally

a new damage probability model was established with Monte Carlo method.Comparison results of the two models show that the prediction probabilities of the new model are larger than that of the Nguyen′s model.It is also found that damage probabilities increase with the perforation and are influenced by the cone angle of the conical pit.So it can be proved that the hypothesis of Nguyen′s model

that the critical residual thickness was a constant

is unreasonable.

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references

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