纸质出版:2009
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[1]黄世成,周嘉陵,程婷,钱玮.工程区台风大风灾害评估方法的研究与应用——以苏通大桥为例[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2009,29(03):329-335.
黄世成, 周嘉陵, 程婷, et al. Research and Application of Disaster Evaluation Methods of Typhoons and Gales——A Case of Sutong Bridge[J]. 2009, 29(3): 329-335.
针对国家重大项目施工和运营中规避台风大风灾害风险的特殊需求
以国家重点工程苏通大桥为例
研究了工程区局地环境下台风大风灾害风险的分析评估方法。利用19492007年桥位地区影响台风资料
用气候统计学方法分析了苏通大桥桥位工程区影响台风的时空分布
并用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对8级以上台风大风对桥位区可能造成的灾损指数进行计算。结果表明:①影响桥位区的台风年均2.5个
其中出现8级以上阵风的严重影响台风年均0.78个
工程区从5月下旬11月下旬均可能受台风袭击
7月上旬9月中旬是桥位区影响台风的多发期
而8月份几率最大
台风大风主要出现在偏东南和偏北方向;②蒙特卡罗方法模拟的桥位区8级以上台风大风的期望灾损指数达到0.282 1
约占全省台风灾害期望灾损指数的48%
潜在的经济损失达到20 675万元。采用气候统计学原理和蒙特卡罗模拟方法
可以满足局部特殊环境下的对工程区气象灾害风险分析的需要
其结果可以作为施工管理和规避灾害风险的依据。
According to the special demand of avoiding the disaster risks of typhoons and gales during construction and operation of important projects
the evaluation methods of disaster risks of typhoons and gales under the local environment of a project area were studied for a case of the Sutong Bridge.Based on the principle of climate statistics
the temporal and spatial distributions of influence typhoons from 1949 to 2007 were studied
and the disaster loss index(DLI) of typhoons and gales with speeds at or above 17.2 m/s(level 8) in the bridge area were calculated with the Monte Carlo method.The results indicate the following:(1) The annual average number of typhoons affecting the bridge area is about 2.5
of which more than 0.78 ones could cause gales with speeds faster than 17.2 m/s (level 8)
the proper time when the project area may suffer the attack of typhoons is the period from late May to late November
the time from early July to mid-September is the frequent period of typhoons
in which August has the maximal probability of typhoons
and the dominant directions of typhoons and gales are the partial south-east or the partial north.(2) The Monte Carlo′s simulation shows the mathematical expectation of DLI of typhoons and gales in the bridge area is about 0.2821
48% of that in the provincial area
and its potential economic losses will be more than 20.675 million Yuan.The application of the evaluation methods for the Sutong Bridge has shown that the principle of climate statistics and the Monte Carlo method could meet the need of meteorological risk analysis for any local environment
and their results could be taken as a theoretical basis for the construction management and the avoidance of disaster risks.
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