谭徐明. Study of Major Drought Catastrophes in China in Recent 500 Years[J]. 2003, (2): 77-83.DOI：
近500年我国特大旱灾的研究
摘要
基于我国近500年历史旱灾资料
对其中持续特大干旱及旱灾个案进行了分析
并对其规律进行了探讨。指出干旱虽是常见的气候现象
但若是大范围、全流域乃至多个流域的持续干旱
则会酿成大灾。如明崇祯年间的持续数年的特大旱灾造成了水源和粮食的极度消耗
自然灾害导致了经济的全面崩溃
最终导致了朝代的更迭。本文以史为鉴
对我国现代面临的严峻的干旱缺水的形势进行了分析和预测
进而提出应将防范的重点集中在对社会影响极大的特大旱灾上
并且应当针对重旱、极旱的减灾对策及早研究和部署
行动越早就越主动。
Abstract
Based on historical drought catastrophes records of China in recent 500 years
the major drought cases arc investigated to explore the regularities of drought catastrophes. It is found that a lasting drought over a large range of area would results in a serious catastrophy. For example
a serious catastrophy oc-curcd in Chongzhen year of Ming dynasty
caused a grave shortage of water and grain supply
which resulted in the callaps of economy and the change of regime. In view of the historical fact
we make analysis of current situation of sever drought and prediction of furlure trend. It is suggested in the paper
the emphasis of prevention should be put on those major droughts which have great influence on socity. The disaster reduction measure for serious and the severest droughts should be worked out and deployed as early as possible.
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