纸质出版:2003
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[1]柏立新.农业有害生物灾变风险预警技术的探讨[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2003(01):84-89.
柏立新. Studies on Technique of Early-warning for Calamity of Agriculture Pest[J]. 2003, (1): 84-89.
把农业有害生物灾害亦当作自然灾害的一种进行剖析并探讨其灾变风险预警技术
提出依据不同灾变过程中所表现的警源、警兆、警情等不同风险程度的各因素统计指标
精选组成灾变预警指标体系并组建多维预警逻辑模型。通过对警源、警兆、警情中主要生物与非生物因素的定量或定性分级
分析各自对灾变的影响作用
计算灾变风险预警综合指标值
确定农业有害生物灾变预警等级。据此建立了棉铃虫灾变预警与防治辅助决策系统(MLCYJJC-CDROM)并指导控害减灾
预警准确率为89.7%
使灾变警级预警更加符合实际
指导防治更有科学依据。本文还对MLCYJJC-CDROM的系统结构、信息处理与实际应用作了解析与讨论。
Based on the agri-ecosystem analysis
the early-warning index system and risk degree evaluation for calamity of agriculture pest were constructed
which consisted of the related factors including pests
natural enemies
cropping system
climate
social and economical factors
level of integrated pest and so on. According to the expression of risk in the calamity process
these factors arc classified into three layers
namely risk resource
risk sign and risk case
respectively. Each factor of risk could be measured by grades with the methods of fixed quantity or qualitative analysis. The weight coefficient of each factor should be given according to the degree related to final calamity. The models calculating the integrated early warning index and risk grade were proposed. They could be used to help optimizing decision for integrated pest control and decreasing the degree of calamity. Cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera Hubner) is one kind of important pests which could cause serious calamity. As an application example
this paper introduced the technique of early-warning for calamity of cotton bollworm in detail. Based on the fundamentals of system analysis and by applying the structural analysis/design and object - oriented programming method
a practical computer system (MLCYJJC-CDROM) of the early-warning for cotton bollworm calamity and the auxiliary control decision ?making with program language VB6. 0 was developed. It is easy to operate
understand
extend and modify. In this system
the subsystem of the early-warning for cotton bollworm calamity consists of the early warning index setup and risk degree evaluation for calamity of cotton bollworm. The subsystem of the auxiliary control decision-making could not only get the information from the early-warning subsystem
but also contains a lot of information to help auxiliary control decision -making. The application of this system was discussed.
神经网络多指标综合评价方法研究 [J]. 潘大丰,李群. 农业系统科学与综合研究 . 1999(02)
生态农业综合评价的指标体系及其权重 [J]. 吴建军,王兆骞,胡秉民. 应用生态学报 . 1992(01)
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